The role of “small alliances” in the foreign policy of Ukraine: the case of Lublin Triangle

Abstract

This study focuses on the analysis of the functionality of the Lublin Triangle as a component of the strategy of conducting “small alliances” in the foreign policy vision of Ukraine. The article is devoted to the study of the reasons, goals, results of the activities of the Lublin Triangle since 2020 until present days and conducting forecast for the future of this international entity. To conduct the research, it was appropriate to use factor analysis to determine the main determinants that drive the functionality of the Lublin Triangle, content analysis of existing documents and interviews of officials and researchers, as well as a level of analysis that contributes to a deeper understanding of this topic at the domestic, regional, and global levels. The preliminary results of the study indicate that the cooperation of Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine within the framework of the Lublin Triangle was the most effective and practical in comparison with other international organizations in which Ukraine participates as part of the “small alliances” policy. The high activity of the participants of the Triangle is also explained by the common historical past and the similarity in their visions of political and security stability in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, the existing threat from the Russian Federation and Belarus to the participants of this alliance, as well as the growing tension between the United States and the People's Republic of China, will only increase the importance of cooperation in this format. Considering the open phase of the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as well as a long-term prospect of Ukraine's integration into NATO, this interstate entity will maintain and increase its relevance, which allows for further and deeper research on this issue.