3D Printing as a Disruptive Technology in International System

Tomasz Gajewski

Abstract


Rapid technological development increasingly defines activities of individuals, societies and nation states. Its pace is high, and it causes problems in social absorption of its already visible effects as well as anxiety about their influence in the future. 3D printing technology is one of the significant manifestations of technological development. The purpose of the paper is to outline its possible effect on international system in the future. The analysis starts with a short introduction, supplemented by an overview of Polish and international literature, concerning 3D printing technology. Then, the author outlines a methodology and formulates hypotheses and research questions. This section is followed by the conceptual framework with crucial categories and their definitions. In the next section, the author verifies the hypotheses and presents possible economic consequences of 3D printing development and its influence on the structure of international conflicts, which creates a picture of the probable impact on the international system as a whole.


Keywords


3D printing, international system, disruptive technology, international forecasting, global economy, international security

Full Text:

PDF (Język Polski)

References


D printing: a threat to global trade, 2017, ING, https://www.ingwb.com/media/2088633/3d-printing-report-031017.pdf (dostęp: 07.02.2019).

D-printed gun blueprints ban extended, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45328960 (dostęp: 14.02.2019).

Agomouh, F. 2018. Sztuczna inteligencja w telefonach i funkcje, z których będziemy dzięki niej korzystać, https://businessinsider.com.pl/technologie/nowe-technologie/sztuczna-inteligencja-wykorzystanie-w-smartfonach-jak-pomoze/0p2b7hx (dostęp: 01.12.2018).

Aleksandrowicz, T.R. 2016. Podstawy walki informacyjnej, Editions-Spotkania, Warszawa.

Allison, G. 2018. Skazani na wojnę? Czy Ameryka i Chiny unikną pułapki Tukidydesa, Pascal, Bielsko-Biała.

Alpaydin, E. 2016. Machine Learning: The New AI, MIt Press, London.

André, J.C. 2018. From additive manufacturing to 3D/4D printing 3 Breakthrough Innovations: Programmable Material, 4D Printing and Bio-printing, Iste Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc., London.

Baker, B. 2018. Made to measure: the next generation of military 3D printing, https://www.army-technology.com/features/made-measure-next-generation-military-3d-printing/ (dostęp: 19.02.2019).

Barnatt, C. 2013. 3D Printing: The Next Industrial Revolution, expalining the Future, North Charleston, SC.

Baumers, M, Dickens, P., Tuck, C., Hague, R. 2016. The cost of additive manufacturing: machine productivity, economies of scale and technology-push, “Technological Forecast & Social Change”, nr 102, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.02.015.

Beck, U. 2008. World at Risk. The New Task of Critical Theory, “Development and Society”, vol. 27, no. 1.

Beck, U. 2012. Społeczeństwo światowego ryzyka. W poszukiwaniu utraconego bezpieczeństwa, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar, Warszawa.

Bostrom, N. 2016. Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Campbell, T., Williams, C., Ivanova, O., Garrett, B. 2011. Could 3D Printing Change the World? Technologies, Potential, and Implications of Additive Manufacturing, Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C.

Chodubski, A. 2009. Prognostyka jako wyzwanie metodologiczne w badaniu stosunków międzynarodowych, „Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio K - Politologia” vol. XVI, nr 2, s. 46.

Choucri, N. 1974. Forecasting in International Relations: Problems and Prospects, “International Interactions”, nr 1, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03050627408434390.

Cole, A., Singer, P.W. 2017. Ghost Fleet. Następna wojna światowa, Bellona, Warszawa.

Costandi, M. 2016. Neuroplasticity, MIt Press, London.

Culey, S.A. 2018. Transition Point: From Steam to the Singularity, Troubador Publishing, New York.

Cukier, L., Mayer-Shonberger, V. 2017. BIG DATA – efektywna analiza danych. Rewolucja, która zmieni nasze myślenie, pracę i życie, Mt Biznes, Warszawa.

Czerwiński, K., Czerwiński, M. 2015. Drukowanie w 3D, InfoAudit, Warszawa.

D’Aveni, R. 2018. The Pan-Industrial Revolution: How New Manufacturing Titans Will Transform the World, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, New York.

Daly, A. 2017. Socio-Legal Aspects of the 3D Printing Revolution, Palgrave Macmillan, New York.

Dickel, S., Ferdinand, J.-P., Petschow, U. 2016. The Multiple Applications of 3D Printing: Between Maker Movements and the Future of Manufacturing, [w:] The Decentralized and Networked Future of Value Creation. 3D Printing and its Implications for Society, Industry, and Sustainable Development, J.-P. Ferdinand, U. Petschow, S. Dickel (red.), Springer International Publishing, Cham.

Design Anthropological Futures. 2016. R.C. Smith, K.T. Vangkilde, M.G. Kjærsgaard, T. Otto, J. Halse, T. Binder (red.), Bloomsbury Publishing, Bloomsbury Publishing, London.

Domingos, P. 2016. Naczelny algorytm. Jak jego odkrycie zmieni świat, Helion, Warszawa.

Doran, C.F. 1999. Why forecasts fail? The Limits And Potential of Forecasting in International Relations and Economics, “International Studies Review”, vol. 1, no. 2.

Eyers, D. R., Potter, A. T. 2017. Industrial Additive Manufacturing: A manufacturing systems perspective, “Computers in Industry”, nr 92–93, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compind.2017.08.002.

Fey, M. 2017. 3D printing and international security: risks and challenges of an emerging technology (PRIF Reports, 144). Frankfurt am Main: Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-51867-8 (dostęp: 14.02.2019).

Ford, M. 2016. Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, Basic Books, New York.

Ford, S., Despeisse, M. 2016. Additive manufacturing and sustainability: an exploratory study of the advantages and challenges, “Journal of Cleaner Production”, vol. 137. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.04.150.

Gabor, D. 1964. Invtenting Future, Pengiun Books, London.

Garret, B. 2014. 3D Printing: New Economic Paradigms and Strategic Shifts, “Global Policy” vol. 5, issue 1, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12119.

German army uses 3D printers to produce spare parts in operations. 2019, https://www.armyrecognition.com/weapons_defence_industry_military_technology_uk/3d_printers_at_the_rescue_in_operations.html (dostęp: 17.02.2019).

Gibson, I., Rosen, D., Stucker, B. 2015. Additive Manufacturing Technologies: 3D Printing, Rapid Prototyping, and Direct Digital Manufacturing, Springer, New York.

Gleick, J. 2018. Chaos. Narodziny nowej nauki, Wydawnictwo Zysk i S-ka, Poznań.

Global Trends: Paradox of Progress. 2017. U.S. National Intelligence Council, Washington, D.C.

Goehrke Anderson, S. 2015. China’s PLA Navy Deploys 3D Printers Onboard Warships to Replace Small Parts, https://3dprint.com/35981/china-pla-navy-3d-printing/ (dostęp: 17.02.2019).

Graber, J. 2014. Swarms of 3d Printed Drones May Be the Future Of Combat, http://www.3dprinterworld.com/article/swarms-3d-printed-drones-may-be-future-combat (dostęp: 19.02.2019).

Greengard, S. 2015. The Internet of Things, MIt Press, London.

Gress, D. R., Kalafsky, R.V. 2015. Geographies of production in 3D: Theoretical and research implications stemming from additive manufacturing, “Geoforum”, vol. 60. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.01.003.

Grillo, I. 2015. Mexican Cartels Invent Ingenious Weapons to Help Battle Government, http://time.com/3839774/cartels-mexico-ingenious-weapons/ (dostęp: 17.02.2019).

Gruszko, K., Gajewski, T. 2018. Regress of The West and the Emerging of New World Order: The Case of NATO, “Athenaeum. Polskie Studia Politologiczne”, vol. 60, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15804/Athena.2018.60.11.

Hanson, E.C. 2008. The Information Revolution and World Politics, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, New York.

Harrari, Y.N. 2018. Homo deus. Krótka historia jutra, Wydawnictwo Literackie, Kraków.

Hornick, J. 2015. 3D Printing Will Rock the World, North Charleston.

Jackson, B. 2018. British Army Applies Lulzbot 3d Printers to Peacekeeping in South Sudan, https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/british-army-applies-lulzbot-3d-printers-to-peacekeeping-in-south-sudan-145492/ (dostęp: 19.02.2019).

James, R. C. 2014. Science Unshackled, John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.

Jennings, R. 2018. China Lays Groundwork For Asian, World Lead In 3D Printing, https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2018/02/01/china-lays-groundwork-for-asian-world-lead-in-3d-printing/#5eeae3dd7f54 (dostęp: 09.02.2019).

Jervis, R. 1997. System Effects. Complexity in Political and Social Life, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.

Jiang, R., Kleer, R., Piller, F. T. 2017. Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030, “Technological Forecasting & Social Change” vol. 119, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.006.

Johnston, T., Smith, T. D., Irwin, J. L. 2018. Addidtive Manufacturing in 2040. Powerful Enabler, Disruptive threat, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica.

Jordan, M.J. 2016. Robots, MIt Press, London.

Josselin, D., Wallace, W. 2001. Non-state Actors in World Politics: a Framework, [w:] Non-state Actors in World Politics, D. Josselin, W. Wallace (red.), Palgrave Publishers, New York.

Kaku, M. 2011. Fizyka przyszłości. Nauka do 2100 roku, Prószyński Media, Warszawa.

Kaku, M. 2014. Przyszłość umysłu, Prószyński Media, Warszawa.

Karpiński, A. 2009. Co trzeba wiedzieć o studiach nad przyszłością? Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa.

Khoo, Z.X., Mei, J.E., Teoh, L.Y, Kai Chua, C., Yang, S., An, J., Leong, K.F., Yeong, W.Y. 2015. 3D printing of smart materials: A review on recent progresses in 4D printing, “Virtual and Physical Prototyping”, vol. 110, no. 3, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17452759.2015.1097054.

Kietzmann, J., Pitt, L., Berthon, P. 2015. Disruptions, decisions, and destinations: Enter the age of 3-D printing and additive manufacturing, “Business Horizons” vol. 58, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2014.11.005.

Kissane, D. 2007. A Chaotic Theory of International Relations? The Possibility for Theoretical Revolution in International Politics, “Pro Polis”, nr 2.

Kozub, M. 2013. Myśleć strategicznie o bezpieczeństwie przyszłości, Akademia Obrony Narodowej, Warszawa.

Kozubek, J. 2018. Modern Prometheus: Editing the Human Genome with Crispr-Cas9, Cambridge University Press, New York.

Kroenig, M., Volpe, T. 2015, 3-D Printing the Bomb? The Nuclear Nonproliferation Challenge, “The Washington Quarterly”, vol. 38 no. 3, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2015.1099022.

Kurzweil, R. 2006. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Penguin Books, New York.

Laplume, A. O., Beterse, M., Pearce J. M. 2016. Global value chains from a 3D printing perspective, “Journal of International Business Studies”, vol. 47, issue 5, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jibs.2015.47.

Latiff, R.H. 2018. Wojna przyszłości. W obliczu nowego globalnego pola bitwy, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.

Lipson, H., Kurman, M. 2013. Fabricated: The New World of 3D Printing, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Indianapolis, IN.

Lopez, E. 2018. Not just hype: 3-D printing expected to transform global industries, https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/3D-printing-hype-GE -Innovation-Barometer-report/517364/ (dostęp: 19.02.2019).

Łoś-Nowak, T. 1993. Funkcja predyktywna nauki o stosunkach międzynarodowych. Wyzwania i zagrożenia, „Studia Polityczne”, nr 1–4 (5).

Łoś-Nowak, T. 2006. Stosunki międzynarodowe. Teorie – systemy – uczestnicy, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Wrocławskiego, Wrocław.

McIntyre, J.J. 2013. Chaos Theory, [w:] Encyclopedia of Crisis Management, K.B. Penuel, M. Statler, R. Hagen (red.), Sage Publishing, London.

Mizokami, K. 2018. The Marines 3D Printed a Concrete Barracks, https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a22877745/the-marines-3d-printed-a-concrete-barracks/ (dostęp: 17.02.2019).

Mohr, S., Khan, O. 2015. 3D Printing and Its Disruptive Impacts on Supply Chains of the Future, “Technology Innovation Management Review”, vol. 5, issue 11, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.22215/timreview/942.

Ngo, T. D., Kashani, A., Imbalzano, G., Nguyen, K., Hui, D. 2018. Additive manufacturing (3D printing): A review of materials, methods, applications and challenges, „Composites Part B: Engineering”, vol. 143. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compositesb.2018.02.012.

Nowina-Konopka, M. 2017. Infomorfoza. Zarządzanie informacją w nowych mediach, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego, Kraków.

O’Neill, C. 2018. Broń matematycznej zagłady. Jak algorytmy zwiększają nierówności i zagrażają demokracji, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.

Osterhammel, J. 2013. Historia XIX wieku. Przeobrażenie świata, Wydawnictwo Poznańskie, Poznań.

Papageorgiu, M. 2017. 4D Printing: A technology coming from the future, https://www.sculpteo.com/blog/2017/10/25/4d-printing-a-technology-coming-from-the-future/ (dostęp: 10.02.2019).

Parrington, J. 2016. Redesigning Life: How genome editing will transform the world, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Pasquale, F. 2016. The Black Box Society: The Secret Algorithms That Control Money and Information, Harvard University Press, New York.

Payne, K. 2018. Strategy, Evolution, and War: From Apes to Artificial Intelligence, Georgetown University Press, Washington, D.C.

Paus, E. 2018. Confronting Dystopia: The New Technological Revolution and the Future of Work, Cornell University Press, New York.

Randers, J. 2014. Rok 2052. Globalna prognoza na najbliższe czterdzieści lat, Dom Wydawniczy Elipsa, Warszawa.

Rehnberg, M., Ponte, S. 2018. From smiling to smirking? 3D printing, upgrading and the restructuring of global value chains, “Global Networks. A Journal of Transnational Affairs”, vol. 18, issue 1. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/glob.12166.

Remarks by the President in the State of the Union Address. 2013.o, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/02/12/remarks-president-state-union-address (dostęp: 09.02.2019).

Ross, A. 2017. The Industries of the Future, Simon & Schuster, New York.

Rundle, G. 2014. A Revolution in the Making: 3D Printing, Robots and the Future, Affirm Press, Melbourne.

Ruppel Shell, E. 2018. The Job: Work and Its Future in a Time of Radical Change, Random House, New York.

Saffo, P. 2007. Six Rules for Effective Forecasting, “Harvard Business Review”, nr 60.

Sajduk, B. 2010. Czy w nauce o stosunkach międzynarodowych możliwe jest efektywne prognozowanie?, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259646504_Czy_w_nauce_o_stosunkach_miedzynarodowych_mozliwe_jest_efektywne_prognozowanie (dostęp: 02.02.2019).

Saritas, O., Smith, J. E. 2011. The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals, “Futures”, t. 43, nr 3, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.007.

Schlak, M. 2015. Industrie 4.0 Was die Roboter der Zukunft können, http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/hannover-messe-industrie-4-0-und-internet-der-dinge-a-1027553.html (dostęp: 29.03.2018).

Schwab, K. 2016. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Penguin Books, London.

Schuelke-Leech, B-A. 2018. A model for understanding the orders of magnitude of disruptive technologies, “Technological Forecasting & Social Change”, nr 129, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.09.033.

Schwab, K. 2016. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Portfolio Penguin, London.

Shanahan, M. 2015. The Technological Singularity, MIt Press, London.

Sharre, P. 2018. Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War, WW Norton, New York.

Siemiński, P., Budzik, G. 2015. Techniki przyrostowe: druk, drukarki 3D, Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Warszawskiej.

Skilton, M., Hovsepian, F. 2017. The 4th Industrial Revolution: Responding to the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Business, Palgrave Macmillan, New York.

Springer, P.J. 2018. Outsourcing War to Machines. The Military Robotics Revolution, Praeger security International, Santa Barbara.

Sułek, M. 2010. Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar, Warszawa.

Tegmark, M. 2017. Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence , Random House, New York.

The Decentralized and Networked Future of Value Creation: 3D Printing and its Implications for Society, Industry, and Sustainable Development. 2016. J.P. Ferdinand, U. Petschow, S. Dickel (red). Springer, Basel.

The State of 3D Printing. 2018, https://www.sculpteo.com/media/ebook/State_of_3DP_2018.pdf (dostęp: 10.02.2019).

To Print a Missile. Raytheon research points to 3-D printing for tomorrow's technology. 2015, https://www.raytheon.com/news/feature/print-missile (dostęp: 13.02.2019).

Tønnessen, T. H. 2017. Islamic State and Technology – A Literature Review, “Perspectives on Terrorism”, vol. 11, no. 3.

Walsh, T. 2018. To żyje! Sztuczna inteligencja. Od logicznego fortepianu po zabójcze roboty, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.

Waltz, K. H. 2010. Struktura teorii stosunków międzynarodowych, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar, Warszawa.

Winnan, C.D. 2013. 3D Printing: The Next Technology Gold Rush – Future Factories and How to Capitalize on Distributed Manufacturing, Create Space Independent Publishing Platform North Charleston, SC.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/k.2020.27.1.43-64
Date of publication: 2020-06-30 13:52:48
Date of submission: 2019-02-23 12:43:26


Statistics


Total abstract view - 1559
Downloads (from 2020-06-17) - PDF (Język Polski) - 1189

Indicators



Refbacks



Copyright (c) 2020 Tomasz Gajewski

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.