Determinants of the Electoral Chances of Rural Commune Heads and Town Mayors Running for Re-election in 2014

Abstract

The aim of the analysis was to determine the influence of quantifiable characteristics of candidates and communes (independent variables) on the electoral chances of rural commune heads and town mayors in the competitive election carried out at the prescribed time in 2014 (the dependent variable). It was assumed that the chances of re-election of rural commune heads and town mayors in the 2014 election were determined by a set of selected 15 explanatory variables such as: the duration of holding the office before, having the majority in the communal council after the previous election, or the asset-related investment expenditure per capita in the year of the election. The independent variables mostly come from public statistics sources (e.g., Central Statistical Office, National Electoral Commission) and are selected on the basis of source literature and conclusions from the field study. Logistic regression was performed on a study sample selected out of all communes except towns with poviat rights (with a balanced proportion of electoral failures and successes in 2014) in order to verify the assumptions. The results of the analysis suggest i.a., that the chance of re-election in 2014 was higher in the case of: holding the office since 2010 and not longer, having the majority in the communal council established in the previous election, or higher investment expenditure in the year of the election. On the other hand, the chance of re-election was lower in the case of higher electoral competition or higher proportion of expenditure for social welfare in the general expenditure of the commune in the year of the election.